PH as a U.S. Ammunition Hub?? What's the Implications???

On the proposal for the U.S. Ammunition Plant at Subic Bay. The U.S. House Appropriations Committee (Defense Subcommittee) is recommending the establishment of an ammunition manufacturing and storage facility at the former U.S. Naval Base in Subic Bay, PH. This initiative is part of the U.S. “Indo-Pacific Ammunition Manufacturing” strategy. Accordingly, the primary motivation is to fill the current lack of forward-staged ammunition manufacturing capacity in the Indo-Pacific region. It aims to reduce U.S. reliance on long supply lines during regional contingencies. The proposed facility would handle not only finished ammunition but also key chemical precursors, such as nitrocellulose, nitroglycerin, and acid, which are essential inputs for explosive production. The appropriations directive requires the Department of Defense, in coordination with the State Department and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, to conduct a feasibility assessment. A progress report is due within 60 days of the enactment of the fiscal year 2026 appropriations act. If executed, this would be among the most substantial U.S. defense investments in the Philippines since World War II and the early Cold War, reaffirming bilateral defense ties and the strategic presence of the US military in the Philippines.

PH Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro is open to the possibility of the U.S. establishing a manufacturing and storage facility for ammunition at the U.S. former military base location in Subic Bay, Zambales. According to Gibo, the Philippines is open to projects that would benefit the country, especially if they would not only aid in defense but also generate jobs and contribute to the economy. However, he said, he has not yet received any “formal proposal” from the United States.

What Does This Imply?

This initiative marks a shift toward bolstering U.S. logistical and munitions capacity in a region growing more geopolitically contested, vis-à-vis the more evident U.S.-China strategic rivalry and competition in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, where the Philippines is becoming one of the battlegrounds, aside from Taiwan. This will also further deepen defense industrial cooperation, elevate Subic Bay’s strategic relevance, and signal a long-term U.S. military presence in the region using the Philippines. Indeed, the U.S. Congress is methodically exploring the establishment of a forward-deployed ammunition plant at Subic Bay, an idea reflecting both logistical foresight and strategic intent as far as the U.S is concerned. The feasibility outcome will determine whether this becomes a concrete step in furthering U.S. defense/military infrastructure in the Philippines.

Critical Commentary:

I would like to address this commentary directly to the President of the Republic of the Philippines, Mr. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Mr. President, let’s not kid ourselves. At this point, the Philippines has practically become a giant floating aircraft carrier in the Asia-Pacific, anchored, armed, and increasingly owned in spirit, if not yet in paperwork, by the United States. Everyone sees it. Everyone knows it. It’s the open secret no one even bothers denying anymore.

But here's the real question: Are you now willing to let our country take the next step and proudly serve as a production arm of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex? An ammunition plant today, what next? Missile assembly lines? Drone testing fields? A Pentagon outpost with mango trees?

Mr. President, are we seriously turning the Philippines into an extension of the U.S. deep state’s defense logistics chain, with our land, labor, and laws being bent to suit some country else's grand strategic design of a superpower that has its own strategic interests in our region, vis-à-vis its strategic competitor, China? Is this the "Bagong Pilipinas" you envisioned?

Let’s be honest, you, I, and every thinking Filipino out there know full well that this path doesn’t serve our real national interests. What we need are industries that feed and sustain life, not ones that feed war. We need irrigation, not ignition. Manufacturing for economic growth, not for militarized conflict. Farmers and engineers, not more foreign boots and bunkers.

As for your defense secretary, Mr. Gibo Teodoro, his eagerness to militarize every aspect of our foreign policy and the country suggests a certain strategic affinity for conflict over compassion. Perhaps he forgets that our real battle is against poverty, hunger, and underdevelopment, not against some “imagined enemy” miles away and a neighbor at that.

So, I ask you, Mr. President, on whose orders is this being done? Whose security are we really advancing? Because from where many of us stand, this looks less like national defense, and more like national surrender in slow motion. This time, take a moment to think things through carefully. Let me provide you, Mr. President, some food for thought…

Implications:

Establishing a U.S.-linked ammunition plant at Subic Bay has profound geopolitical consequences for the Philippines. While it offers potential economic and defense benefits, it also comes with significant risks and drawbacks, especially considering the Philippines’ historical role as America's longest-standing military outpost in Asia.

1. Further/Full Erosion of Strategic Autonomy and Neutrality: The proposed plant signifies deeper U.S. military-industrial integration, potentially locking the Philippines into Washington's strategic orbit. This undermines the country's independent foreign policy doctrine, as enshrined in its Constitution (Article II, Section 7), and makes neutrality in great power competition more difficult to sustain. The perception that the Philippines is “choosing sides” in the U.S.-China rivalry will be reinforced further, potentially complicating its diplomatic options.

2. Increased Risk of Becoming a Target in Case of Conflict: Hosting a U.S. munitions facility, even if Philippine-controlled, which I have huge doubts about, may be interpreted by China as an escalatory and hostile move. Subic Bay could become a military target in the event of a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Suppose war breaks out, GOD forbid, of course. In that case, we are all praying for such eventuality not to ever happen, Subic could face missile or cyber-attacks, endangering civilians and national infrastructure.

3. Economic Blowback and Investment Risk: Chinese capital remains significant in the Philippines, especially in infrastructure, mining, construction, and tourism. The U.S.-linked munitions plant may invite economic retaliation, including: withdrawal or delay of Chinese investments, tourism bans (as seen in past disputes), and trade restrictions or informal blockades on Philippine goods. Such moves can dampen investor confidence, especially from countries hoping to remain neutral in great power rivalries.

4. Undermining ASEAN Centrality and Regional Balancing Role: A U.S. ammunition plant may be viewed by fellow ASEAN members (such as Indonesia or Malaysia) as compromising regional stability and weakening ASEAN unity and centrality in promoting peaceful dispute resolution. This can isolate the Philippines diplomatically in regional forums and reduce its influence.

5. National Sovereignty, Independence, and Strategic Autonomy Concerns: Many Filipinos view the U.S. military presence with historical suspicion, rooted in colonial memories, as evidenced by protests (e.g., the 1991 Senate rejection of U.S. army and naval bases in Subic and Clark) and sovereignty struggles precisely because Filipinos don’t want the country to be a proxy or a pawn.

6. Legal and Constitutional Questions: The Philippine Constitution prohibits the establishment of foreign military bases and facilities. This proposed U.S. ammunition plant will primarily serve U.S. military operational needs in the Asia Pacific, aligning with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Hence, the question is this: how do we balance on foreign military entanglements with superpowers to our advantage or disadvantage, given the volatile and uncertain region and the world is facing at the moment?

To be brutally frank, Mr. President, while the Subic ammunition plant may align with U.S. strategic imperatives in the Indo-Pacific, for the Philippines, it risks:

1. Reducing diplomatic flexibility

2. Provoking China, by extension, even Russia and other perceived adversaries of the U.S.

3. Compromising the Philippines’ sovereignty, independence, and strategic autonomy

4. Exposing the country to future conflict

5. Damaging economic and regional partnerships

Conclusion:

A truly sovereign and balanced foreign policy would require the Philippines to weigh strategic benefits against these geopolitical liabilities and consider whether such a move genuinely serves national interests or merely serves U.S. strategic interests and great power games at the expense of Philippine peace, sovereignty, and strategic autonomy.

Mr. President, perhaps it’s time, just for a moment, to pause the ribbon-cuttings, the jet-setting, and the photo ops. Sit down. Reflect. Because no matter how many press statements are crafted or how many officials are made to parrot talking points, the truth remains: whatever happens to this country, its sovereignty, its dignity, its peace or peril, rests squarely on your shoulders.

You wanted to be president, sir. Well, here we are. The future of 110 million Filipinos isn’t a talking point; it’s your legacy. And no, you can't outsource that to Washington.

So, think very carefully. History has a sharp memory, and the people, despite the spin, are not as forgetful as some would hope.