Courting Catastrophe??: The Philippines, Taiwan, and the Perils of Strategic Delusion

Mr. President Marcos Jr., is your government, alongside your Maltese man defense secretary, deliberately provoking China over the Taiwan Strait? Seriously?

In what can only be described as a masterclass in geopolitical brinkmanship, or perhaps geopolitical amnesia, the Philippines seems determined to stand out in Southeast Asia by poking the proverbial dragon on its most sensitive nerve: Taiwan. By inching ever closer to Taipei, Manila is distancing itself not only from the long-standing “One-China Principle/Policy” recognized by nearly every country on Earth but also from the collective diplomatic posture of ASEAN, of which it is supposedly a member in good standing.

One would think that ASEAN solidarity and the bloc’s principle of non-interference and neutrality would be guiding lights for Philippine foreign policy. After all, the rest of Southeast Asia seems to understand that “strategic autonomy” doesn’t mean becoming a forward operating base for a distant superpower’s containment strategy against an already established superpower in the neighborhood. Yet here we are: the Philippines has become the exception, not the rule, aligning itself with Washington’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” as if the archipelago were a U.S. outpost rather than a sovereign nation with regional and national responsibilities.

Let’s be clear: there are fewer than 15 countries on the planet that maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, most of them smaller than Metro Manila. That number is shrinking, not growing. And yet, the Philippines, in what can only be described as a stunning display of diplomatic adventurism or naivety, is cozying up to the Taiwan so-called “separatist government” as if it were the next big geopolitical investment. SPOLIER ALERT: IT’S NOT!!

Even fellow ASEAN states are raising eyebrows. Malaysia, the current chair, has voiced concern, clearly wary that Manila’s stunt may drag the region into a U.S.-China confrontation no one in Southeast Asia asked for. It’s almost as if the Philippines missed the ASEAN MEMO: DON’T BRING SOMEONE ELSE’S WAR TO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD!

So, what’s the endgame here, Mr. President? Is your government now using Taiwan as a bargaining chip in your so-called belligerent and confrontational approach to the South China Sea dispute?? Really?? Goodness gracious, I am telling you, Mr. President, IT IS FUTILE! So please RETHINK and MAKE AN INFORMED CHOICE!

Is this some kind of Marcos Jr. administration’s desperate audition for the lead role in Washington’s next Pacific theater production? Either way, the move stinks of strategic shallowness. It grossly underestimates China’s red lines and overestimates the durability of U.S. guarantees, those same guarantees that have a history of selective enforcement depending on convenience, cost, and electoral cycles.

Let’s talk basics: China is the Philippines’ top trading partner, a major investor, and a geopolitical and geo-economic juggernaut whose economic and military strength and influence span continents. And yet, Marcos Jr.’s government behaves as if it has the luxury of provoking Beijing with impunity, because Uncle Sam will pick up the tab when things go south. Newsflash: When the bill comes due, it’s often the “ally” who pays in blood and debt. Lest we forget the warning from Henry Kissenger, to be an enemy of Uncle Sam is dangerous, but to be its friend is FATAL

So, here’s the million-dollar question: Is the Philippines truly prepared to torch its immediate economic interests, destabilize regional peace, and risk long-term political consequences all for the illusion of protection under an increasingly transactional alliance with the United States? And even if it were, does anyone honestly believe that this path will lead to Philippine security, uphold the country’s claims to the SCS, maintain the country’s sovereign independence, strategic autonomy, and usher in economic prosperity and geopolitical respect and dignity?

Is this a strategy? Or is it of the kamikaze variety, characterized by recklessness, self-destructiveness, and a lack of long-term strategic foresight and benefit? Is Marcos Jr.’s government “playing with matches in a powder keg” or a high-stakes gamble with no safety net? What do you think, mga Ka-Bansa??

P.S.

By the way, folks, I will discuss this topic more in my Column Op-Ed Article in The Manila Times, which will be published tomorrow, Saturday, July 19, 2025. This is just a teaser. Have a good Friday and take care, everyone, there’s a typhoon hitting our beloved Philippines again!