Between Retribution and Resurrection: The 2025 Midterms and the Fight for 2028

…THE May 12, 2025, midterm elections in the Philippines were far from an ordinary democratic exercise; they were widely interpreted as a proxy war between two dominant political families, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former president Rodrigo Duterte. Far from mere ballot casting, this electoral showdown became a de facto referendum on the political future of both camps. Remarkably, despite being detained at The Hague under the weight of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant, Rodrigo Duterte defied the odds by running for mayor, and the Dutertes still clinched a sweeping landslide victory in Davao City. This outcome sends a powerful message: that political persecution has not dismantled the Duterte power base but, in fact, may have galvanized it. Their electoral success underscores the enduring legitimacy and resilience of Duterte's populist appeal, defying institutional efforts to marginalize them. By contrast, the Marcos camp now finds itself increasingly isolated, its legitimacy eroding amid declining approval ratings and internal fractures. The Dutertes' landslide win is not merely local but symbolic of a broader political undercurrent that may reshape the national landscape heading into the 2028 presidential/national elections.

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